Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
India's sugar consumption is projected to fall by nearly 400,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 season, primarily due to the ongoing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shortage exacerbated by the West Asia conflict and unseasonably cool weather.
'Retail portfolios were going nowhere even as headline indices moved higher, prompting investors to sell holdings and shift money to IPOs, attracted by listing-day gains.'
The stock of automative major Eicher Motors hit its all-time high on Wednesday, capping the year with gains of about 52.7 per cent. It has comfortably outperformed its sector index, the Nifty Auto, which jumped 22.7 per cent, as well as the benchmark Nifty, which rose 10 per cent during this period.
From the Sensex firms, Adani Ports, NTPC, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Trent and Asian Paints were among the major gainers. However, Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti were among the laggards.
Banks are depending more heavily on the market for certificates of deposit (CDs), whose worth climbed to a record Rs 5.75 trillion in the fortnight to January 15, owing to deposit tightness in the system.
Shares of tyre manufacturers have outperformed broader equity benchmarks, buoyed by multiple tailwinds. Softer raw material prices, an uptick in demand from automakers following the reduction of the goods and services tax (GST) rates, and steady replacement demand have lifted sentiment toward the sector.
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
Trading pattern in the stock market this week will largely depend on the ongoing Q3 earnings announcement from corporates, global trends, and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Moreover, geopolitical developments and any update on trade negotiations would also be keenly tracked by investors, experts noted.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
Jefferies has downgraded Indian information technology (IT) companies Infosys, HCLTech, and Mphasis to "hold"; LTI MindTree, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Hexaware to "underperform", citing artificial intelligence (AI)-related concerns. Coforge, Sagility and IKS, however, still remain its top picks.
The government has asked manufacturers to revise the maximum retail price (MRP) on unsold stocks in line with the change in GST rates. The government has reduced GST on various products and services, which will come into effect from September 22.
The government has sharply reduced excise duty on petrol to 3 and diesel to zero, offering major relief to consumers. Here's how the price cut will impact fuel rates and inflation.
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Punjab Kings pacer Vijaykumar Vyshak aims to consistently bowl at 150 kmph and develop new variations to remain competitive in the high-pressure environment of the India Premier League.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
A disruption in the supply of LPG cylinders caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz is impacting Indian kitchens, leading to restaurant closures, price hikes and a surge in demand for electric cooktops.
'The day that the market realises that they've overspent (on AI) and there's a sudden collapse in the capex, then India can start outperforming again.'
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
Analysts say long-term investors may still benefit, but recommend limiting bullion exposure to around 10 per cent.
Shares of information technology (IT) companies were in demand on Friday, with the National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty IT index rallying 3.3 per cent on . This came after Infosys reported steady sequential growth, driven by health care boost and large deal rampup in a seasonally weak quarter (Q3FY26).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
'It would be similar to what happened during COVID-19.' 'They are not just losing income, but being pushed into distress.'
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The Nifty IT index hit a more than nine-month low, trading at its weakest level since April 17, 2025.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
Strong performance in the beauty and personal care (BPC) segment, margin gains, and expectations of a breakeven in the fashion business lifted sentiment for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa). The consumer technology platform's stock rose 7.5 per cent on Friday, extending gains over the past week to more than 17 per cent. Most brokerages have upgraded the stock following its third-quarter (October-December/Q3) performance and higher profit expectations ahead.
Benchmark BSE Sensex fell 558 points on Thursday amid heavy selling in IT shares, as concerns over AI-led disruptions and waning hopes of a Fed rate cut after firm US economic data weighed on investor sentiment.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Tech and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. However, Maruti, Eternal, UltraTech Cement and State Bank of India were among the laggards.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Sensex and Nifty post steepest weekly loss in over a year, falling nearly 3 per cent.
After a big loss, teams often give excuses instead of honestly admitting they played badly.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
Let us start with ourselves. If we can reduce our LPG consumption by half, the problem is solved. Reduce wastage. Alter eating styles. Diversify methods of food preparation, suggests Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
Zero-coupon bonds suit investors with long-term goals such as retirement or education planning.
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